Due to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia’s palm oil production is expected to increase by 6.94% from September 1 to 30, with an increase of 5.86% in Peninsular Malaysia, an increase of 8.72% in Eastern Malaysia, an increase of 10.06% in Sabah, and an increase of 10.06% in Sarawak. The more it increased by 5.01%. Another data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association showed that Malaysian palm oil stocks may rise to 2.38 million tons, an increase of 12.05% month-on-month, reaching the highest level since October last year.
Domestic palm oil stocks also rebounded significantly. Monitoring data from the China Cereals and Oils Business Network show that as of the 40th weekend of 2023, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 780,000 tons, an increase of 105,000 tons from 675,000 tons the previous week.
Both the Malaysian Palm Oil Association and Bloomberg surveys predict that Malaysia’s palm oil stocks will rise to 2.41 million tons in September, an increase of 13.68% from 2.12 million tons in August. Analysts estimate Malaysia’s palm oil production in September to be 1.86-1.87 million tons, and the actual production data is slightly lower than expected. In addition, Saudi Arabian National Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) recently announced that it will provide sustainable palm oil (USOIL) to international customers starting in November, with a total volume of approximately 500,000 tons.
Oil market trends diverge.
Under the influence of multiple factors, such as higher international crude oil prices, a decline in the U.S. dollar index, and an expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production, the international oil and fat market has diverged. As of the close of business on October 7, Beijing time, the price of the main contract of soybean oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 0.55% to close at 67.35 cents/pound; the price of the main contract of international rapeseed futures rose 0.77% to close at 59.80 Canadian dollars. / ton; Chicago soybean oil futures prices rose 0.66% to close at 69 cents per pound; rapeseed futures prices in Hamburg, Germany, rose 2.1% to close at 575 euros per ton.
Oil market analysts said that the divergence of oil market trends reflects differences in market expectations for oil supply and demand. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production is expected to bring positive effects to the market. However, the market still faces a variety of uncertain factors, such as the progress of global economic recovery and the recovery of oil and fat demand. In addition, oil prices are also affected by other factors, such as the U.S. dollar index, crude oil prices, and related policies.
International oil prices have shown a strong trend recently. As of the close of trading on October 7, Beijing time, the price of crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 2.22% to close at US$74.9 per barrel; About the price of Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose by 1.42% and closed at US$74.9 per barrel. At US$78.4 per barrel. Analysts believe that the decline in the U.S. dollar index and the good performance of global stock markets are some of the main reasons for the rise in international oil prices. In addition, the latest data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.94 million barrels last week, while market expectations were for an increase of 274,000 barrels. This has also brought some support to international oil prices.
Generally speaking, the recent trends in the oil and crude oil markets have been relatively good. However, the market still faces some uncertain factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in factors such as the progress of global economic recovery, recovery of oil and fat demand, and relevant policies. At the same time, it is also necessary to pay close attention to changes in the domestic oil and fat market and policy adjustments in order to better grasp market opportunities and risk control.
